Tell me why

Tell me reasons why US stock market will be in bull mode again?

Are the having a population boom? Do they have alots of savings to spend?

So if the market usually anticipates for a return of economic growth, what are the catalyst for the growth? Unless more revenues are generated globally or more concentrated in asia, where will the growth come from?



I think it's going to be a secular bear...

Economics

As the reason for sociology to arise is due to sociological problems, economics arise with the aim of understanding capitalism and the economic problems that exist.

So I really want to ask those that study economics. What is the real purpose of studying economics? If you study just for passing or getting the so called distinction, do you know the underlying reasons for the study of economics.

Those that study mechanically just try to understand the mechanisms such as supply and demand etc. Thus they can only explain that the final outcome is to reach equilibrium. But how about other aspects that affect the outcome? Because reaching the equilibrium is just the final outcome where the price of goods are just an indication of what it is worth in the market, so is it what it really should be?

The way that students are taught in SIM are just too mechanical. If you have seen how A. Wiztum teaches, this is the real standard in universities. But because SIM is just an institution, the level of teaching will never be on par with universities. And the way the subjects are taught are for the sake of passing the exam without real knowledge to be placed in the real world.

But this does not mean that we should sit down and cry. But it means that we have to really study in depth by ourselves, which I have failed to realise it before. Luckily its not too late.

Rice

Rice is a staple food for half the world. The demand for rice is inelastic, meaning that as price increases, people still need to buy it to eat and the change in consumption is minimal.

This means that only by increasing the supply will the price cease to increase. But farmers will not be willing to increase supply rapidly because of the pursuit of profits.

Or are we complaining too much about the increase in price because it is relatively expensive than before? How do we define the real price of rice? How do we define how much it really worth?

Economic Expectations

Normative

Analyst, central bankers , governments all tried to calm everyone down in this financial and commodities turmolt. Actually, the future may seem even worse than everyone can see.

Of course there will be panic (the herd mentality) if they do not calm them down. But if China continues to have price control and other countries limit exports of food because they have to save themselves first. This problem will create a huge disequilibrium. There will be social unrest which the news are reporting nowadays. When people do that, the problem becomes worse as productivity will dip.

The worse is that the poor will be the one that will suffer the most.

In inflationary times, the poor gets poorer and in economic expansion times, the rich gets richer.

Separation

I'll be dividing my blog into 2 since there are 2 different types of contents which I dont want to mix it together.

Daily Affairs - http://witherwind.blogspot.com/
Diary - http://windywindows.blogspot.com/

Amazing Cosco Corp trend

If you have horizontal lines for cosco corp chart at around 7.8, 6.8, 5.8, 4.8, 3.8, 2.8, you will see an astonishing trend even for a technical trend idiot like me.

Although there is a relationship that may not be causal, it can be a good indicator of the next top or bottom. This may indicate that it has a low probability of reaching another low of 1.8.

When Cosco announced a cancellation of order, the stock did not breach below 2.8. That was the bottom.

So ignoring other trend indicators, this simple indicator should be sufficient to say that the bottom for this stock has been reached. The price level is around the same now 1 year ago.

Even if the stock really reach 1.8, that would be the ultimate buying opportunity if the company's fundamentals remain the same, which means that it's core drivers such as ship repair and book order remains intact.

Which means that if the 2H rally materialise, this stock should rally to 3.8 and a breach could lead it to 4.8. We can predict the time it will materialise but we can see the "value" according to the trend.