George Soros said that this is the worst financial crisis since WW2. And he said a few months back that we are only at the tip of the downturn. It seems that this is reflexively coming true.

Oil prices

High oil prices is needed to fasten the pace of research in alternative energies. We are at the peak of the oil era and new oil discoveries will not slack the rise in oil prices. Oil prices will not return back to its cheap days anymore. OPEC are the ultimate winners in monetary terms but they lack technological advancement.

Instead of building the hospitality and commercial industry, their massive oil money could be used in the research of alternative energies. It will be expensive in the short run, but if they succeed, they would continue their "tradition" of being energy behemoths.

Meanwhile, in Singapore, what is the future after creating commercial and hospitality industry? The hospitality industry is a "perfect competition" because every country can create it and are doing it now. However, rising inflation will stop globalisation in its track, at least slowing it down.

With this, subjectively, the stock bull market is over until new energy sources are created. I am not surprised if a Octane 98 reaches S$2.5 within a year.

It's a huge risk to invest in alternative energy stocks but it can be the most rewarding with a 10 - 20 years outlook.

All of us must follow the 3 rules to Reduce, Reuse and Recycle in order for everyone to survive. Once total oil supply in the world reaches a negative threshold, it will be too late. If fact, we have just passed the oil peak and we are experiencing the initial effects of depleting oil.

However, oil prices will dip in the short term (a correction) and will assume its uptrend later for the medium and long term. The dip will be a great opportunity to accumulate oil stocks in the medium term. And now, before that huge dip occurs, transportation stocks are a bargain.

Sudden idea, or rather, Ideal

I suddenly thought of something. If we are "communist", or rather, "socialist" at heart, why not we become capitalist to benefit the workers lol? There is such things as social enterprise. It would depend on the capitalist moral and social values. I can be a capitalist organising capitalistic activities but share equity among every worker depending on their meritocratic abilities. Well, I can't give the same pay both to a lazy worker and a hardworking worker right? If not, the hardworking worker will be incentivised to be lazy.

Subjective Analysis

After reading so many news, each with different opinions and statistics to support themselves, I come to a subjective conclusion that this inflation will not dissipate this year, nor next year. We live in a "I want it right now" era.

Historically, monetary policies on inflation takes 2 years for its maximum impact to be felt. But nowadays, everyone just wants an immediate impact.

In times of inflation, especially now, where wages do not rise in expectation of inflation, companies cannot pass down the cost of production to consumers unless they have monopolistic power. Therefore stocks will be on a stagnant growth and rising cost phenomenon - stagflation. Those that are in low debt or no debt and have sufficient cash to tide over this era are the winners in the long run provided their management are solid.

These are qualities that Warren Buffet look into when investing in businesses.

Defensives such as Telecoms(ST/SH/M1) and monopolies(SPH/SPost) in singapore are good buys and currently, their technical indicators are "oversold". However, they are not exciting growth stocks, thus diminishing the demand for their shares.

Thus in inflationary times, our cash are turning worthless with each passing day. Imagine 100,000 becoming 86490 after 2 years of 7% inflation.

Furthermore, the market is currently weakening. stocks with earning visibility such as KCorp, which received US$922 mil worth of contract in the past 1 week are seeing their share price fall. Warren Buffett would be so glad if he can use $0.50 to buy $1 worth of business. Who won't?

Talk about Kiasi, Kiasu and Kiabo LOL.