The Chattering Wind

Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Intrapersonal Intelligence

From wiki:

Intrapersonal

This area has to do with introspective and self-reflective capacities. Those who are strongest in this intelligence are typically introverts and prefer to work alone. They are usually highly self-aware and capable of understanding their own emotions, goals and motivations. They often have an affinity for thought-based pursuits such as philosophy. They learn best when allowed to concentrate on the subject by themselves. There is often a high level of perfectionism associated with this intelligence.

Careers which suit those with this intelligence include philosophers, psychologists, theologians, writers and scientists.

Tuesday, May 06, 2008

OMG

Allco REIT

Just by browsing thru the first quarter 08 financial statement, I can say that the management don't know what they are doing. Everything is in a mess. No wonder the large discount from its NAV.

Skewed Presentation

In their powerpoint presentation, they skew the data to give a look that they are succeeding. They show all the plus points like the increase in revenue from their "forecasted" and previous year.

BUT. They did not even talk about the COST. The cost percentage rise is more than the revenue rise. They did not or could not take care of the bottom line. All I can say is poor management. It recently refinanced itself at a higher intereste rate.

In the long run, this REIT will definitely be taken over or liquidated.

If the stock price rises tml, it means that people do not understand the downside.

Monday, May 05, 2008

Market correction

The market rises even though there are bad news everywhere. There are people justifiying this rally because the market is forward looking - that the bad news will be over. Will it?

This is just the start. It is true that subprime woes are gone. BUT, there are other factors not considered yet. Corporate earnings have not adjusted to the impact from the subprime crisis. There will be future erosions of profit margins.

First, the foxes enter the market, taking a risk with huge reward that the market has bottomed for the time being and a rally will be in force. Next, at the later stage, the pigs arrive, thinking that it is a sure win bet but never do they know that it was a late stage in the rally. They became pork chop for the foxes. Yum.

Gold price is rising again. Some people forsee another correction.

This is the late stage of the bull market that started in 2002. Sell into strength, efficient market theory does not apply.

Growing Fear

In Singapore, there are many educational institutions being set up or existing ones expanding. This influx of students will in turn generate an influx supply of employees in the future.

Singapore is a small country. With so many institutions, degree holders are everywhere. Work credibility will be the main importance.

With this influx, there will be many black sheeps within the employees that may ruin the name of the university. Therefore, if I where an employer, I would see the 3 local universities as the top priority.

Which means that "global" degrees of easy availability have less negotiating power. Employers would be delighted as this means a reduction in wage cost. Furthermore, foreign talents are welcome to join in the workforce of singapore as long as they are eligible.

No country can last in the long run without the diversity of workforce because of Globalisation, especially Singapore. The fears of Singaporeans are not unjustified. But to refrain from the forces of Globalisation is suicide to the country's long term health. Therefore, the government has to allow the diversity of workforce and give a hand in giving a lift to poor Singaporeans. Their schemes needs to be adjusted to inflation. Now, they are currently doing a good job but it can be done better.

The title should be "My Growing Fear" because I am very scared. The future seems bleak especially in a few years time where global economic growth starts to cool or even become stagnant while the workforce grows.