The Chattering Wind

Friday, February 01, 2008

Upcoming Bull Market

Just a gut feeling, I can sense a bull market in range in the next 2 - 3 months if DJ transportation AVE manage to move sideways. But beware as it may be a bull trap. Analysts say that 2H will be a better time for stocks but I think big fishes will go in earlier in anticipation of inflow of money in the stock market again after fears are overblown in reflection of the poor sentiments in the stock market.

A probable assumption as interest rates are getting so slow it's good to be in debt again after this debt crisis, which is a precursors to another bubble if the fed does not raise the interest rate fast enough after this impending recession or maybe just one quarter of negative GDP.

A repeat of the tech bust where the Fed slashes interest rates and held it low for too long?

Not to commit now though. Buy at a margin of safety and dollar cost average increasingly towards the bottom - meaning buy abit now, buy more when it drops, and so on. The diversification of risk justifies the transaction cost.

Be a contrarian earlier on to win. When everyone follows, this is not a contrarian move anymore. Be a bullish bear in bad times and bearish bull in good times.

To experienced investors and traders - I'm just a noob, these are just my ideas.

Thursday, January 31, 2008

The Danger Faced by Generation Y

Generation Y is generally born between 1980 - 1995.

This was a period of rapid change. A change so fast majority of those within this generation (mainly those born at the early 1980s) faces being anomie where technology connects people together. This connection brings exchanges of knowledge, culture etc at a pace so fast that they face a sense of loss of self. It's the general feeling of insecurity, a sense of being controlled. This rise of individualisation in fact

Trends

1.) An increase in underage drinking and drug abuse.
2.) Baby-boomers(Parents) being Helicopter Parents.
3.) Rise in consumerism and materialism.

Helicopter Parents act as safety nets to prevent their children from receiving harm and failure. This may seem to be what a parent should do, but in fact it prevents them from reaching independence - meaning a reliance on parents even through later life. Confucius once said that the role of the parent is to let their children gain independence asap to their benefit. If they do not make mistakes early in life, they will not be wiser and be able to use mistakes to their benefit.

This gives more importance to bureacracy and one day we will be consumed by it as we become dehumanized.

I wonder what would happen during a major crisis(natural, unnatural etc) when gen Y are at helm in the society.

Just my 2 cents. I can see it is not quite convincing.