The Chattering Wind

Friday, February 01, 2008

Upcoming Bull Market

Just a gut feeling, I can sense a bull market in range in the next 2 - 3 months if DJ transportation AVE manage to move sideways. But beware as it may be a bull trap. Analysts say that 2H will be a better time for stocks but I think big fishes will go in earlier in anticipation of inflow of money in the stock market again after fears are overblown in reflection of the poor sentiments in the stock market.

A probable assumption as interest rates are getting so slow it's good to be in debt again after this debt crisis, which is a precursors to another bubble if the fed does not raise the interest rate fast enough after this impending recession or maybe just one quarter of negative GDP.

A repeat of the tech bust where the Fed slashes interest rates and held it low for too long?

Not to commit now though. Buy at a margin of safety and dollar cost average increasingly towards the bottom - meaning buy abit now, buy more when it drops, and so on. The diversification of risk justifies the transaction cost.

Be a contrarian earlier on to win. When everyone follows, this is not a contrarian move anymore. Be a bullish bear in bad times and bearish bull in good times.

To experienced investors and traders - I'm just a noob, these are just my ideas.

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