The Chattering Wind

Monday, March 24, 2008

Rally

Barton Biggs said so (A 1000 pt rise in DJIA), Jim Rogers also said so(The fed is continuing the bubble, bull is inevitable) . The charts(rising RSI and stochastics and breakouts) said so, so are the rising volume (initial phase) that said so and so is the drop in gold price (rally in US dollar, a factor that gold price dropped) that said so. So is it time for a rally or is it so so?

Now I say that the future is uncertain and it is so!!!

I think it's more of a reaching equilibrium after over over sold positions. Volatility will be high. Another crash will make everyone fear-adversed an that will be the true bottom. As the market is of a discounting mechanism, it may be a double dip cycle where the input of that one time social package finally takes effect and as it's effects weakens and when the fed increases back it's rate(I think it learned its dotcom lesson), it may experience a dip.

If inflation is controlled and ceases to accelerate and in fact deccelerates with time, this will be the true bull market. Or else this rally is a dead cat that ate jumping beans.

Seriously, long term investing is definitely one of the most reliable way to grow your wealth. Amateur short term speculators will lose out due to cost and the lack of discipline to cut loss.

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