The Chattering Wind

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Why?

Why does my instinct tells me that the current economic crisis is going to get worse. It is going to be something no one ever expect and seen before.

My instinct tells me that:

All those liquidity pumping is going to cause major disequilibrium in the flow of money.

And that the real economy will not recover in expectation of any forecast and will be longer than expected. Those that says that 2010 will be on the road to recovery are just speculating and are too optimistic.

...

It is true that it will recover. But not if the economy shrinks first for the next phase of growth because of high leverage. And not if extra money is invested in infrastructure for long term growth.

Although I'm peanut, infrastructure spending is vital to any economy. Without a good foundation, a building has a high chance of collapsing. Furthermore, when the building is built at high levels (as leverage is in the extreme), the economy becomes unstable.

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