The Chattering Wind

Friday, November 14, 2008

Too Big to Fail

Too big to fail does not mean it wont fail. The government is not God, neither are their moves certain to avoid the Big Companies from failing.

What if the government only has resources to bailout one? They cannot inject money to banks and insurance companies forever because they are writing of their ASSets in the mean time and using the money to go on holidays.

This means that there is a high probability that a too big to fail will fail. It may be more than 1. Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers are not too big to fail. They are big but not fat enough to fail. It is good that they failed.

AIG and FM*2 are really too big to fail. GM is also too big to fail because of the massive population under their payroll. Some major banks are going to consolidate or fail.

The government has injected so much fiat money that is only backed under the full faith of US and that China has a strong forex risk in their massive accumulation of US debts. I hope they spend more and spend it fast on infrastructure. If USA really fails, China must not fail. If they fail too, it will be OM Tian.

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