The Chattering Wind

Thursday, October 09, 2008

Next turn of events

Next, you would see companies with high debt leverage and/or unable to pay debt interest will be the next to fall. Those that has interest coverage that is close to being unable to pay will be in danger.

Companies with lots of cash are here to stay and take advantage of today's distressed times.

Companies with high inventory are also prone to increased debt to asset ratio. It is most probable that their inventory are priced at a premium due to past high production and material cost. They will be unable to undertake extra loans to secure more working capital to at least survive until the next boom.

One company, Olam, has high debt gearing. With the fall of commodity prices and the low profit margins it can generate, It is a question on how long they can sustain their growth. It is true that people still needs to eat. But it does not give assurance on the impact of price change. Consumption is rather inelastic, where swings in prices does not really impact the consumption. Look out for their next quarter report and there may be some clues of the next turn of events of this stock.

Some S-shares have plunged below their NAV, some even close to the amount of cash per share. these stocks don't even have any debt. So how Efficient Market Hypothesis explains this?

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